South Africa Could Get Fuel Price Relief In December

There is early good news for drivers in South Africa. Petrol prices could drop sharply in December, even though government fuel tax relief is getting smaller. But this is early data, not final price yet.

This report is based on IOL Business article "Petrol prices could fall sharply in December despite fuel tax relief being scaled back" published Nov 9, 2026 by Jason Woosey, plus Central Energy Fund (CEF) early data.

What the early data says

According to CEF data for the first week of November, petrol is showing a big over-recovery - meaning it costs less to import than what you pay now.

• Petrol 93: over-recovery of R2.02 per litre
• Petrol 95: over-recovery of R2.32 per litre - some updated CEF tables on Nov 9 show R2.24 and R2.54

Diesel is almost flat:
- Diesel 0.05%: over-recovery of just R0.01 to R0.27 per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: over-recovery of R0.62 per litre

This is a big change from last month. In early November, petrol only dropped by 1 cent per litre, while diesel dropped by R1.10-R1.20. So a potential R2 drop in December would be the biggest cut this year.

Why is it dropping now? Two reasons per IOL:

1. Oil price fell. Brent crude fell from near $118 per barrel to about $95-98 after the US midterm elections. Donald Trump's signals on Iran talks lowered risk premium.
2. Rand stronger. Rand is now around R16.50 to the dollar, stronger than last month, so importing fuel costs less in rands.

If this holds, a 50-litre tank of 95 petrol could cost about R90-R100 less. At current inland price R30.24 for 95, a R2.04 cut brings it to about R28.20.

Why prices may still change

This is the important disclaimer - CEF data changes every day until month-end.

Also, government tax relief is being scaled back.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced R10 billion temporary fuel tax relief in October MTBPS. In November, General Fuel Levy was cut by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3.00 for diesel.

In December, that relief gets smaller:
- Petrol relief drops from R1.50 to R1.00 - so 50 cents is added back to your price
- Diesel relief drops from R3.00 to R1.50 - so R1.50 is added back

What does that mean?
Even with over-recovery of R2.32, petrol 95 net cut becomes about R1.82 after adding back 50c tax (R2.32 - R0.50). So instead of R28.42 theoretical, you might pay about R28.90 if slate levy stays.

For diesel, it is worse. Because diesel over-recovery is small, adding back R1.50 means diesel price will likely increase by about R1.15 to R2.04 per litre in December, even though petrol drops.

There is also Slate Levy - another charge around R1.50 per litre that CEF does not include in early table. Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce it at end of November. That could eat into petrol savings.

Final price will only be confirmed by DMPR on Monday/Tuesday before first Wednesday of December.

What lower fuel can mean for families and transport

If petrol drops by R1.50-R2.00, it matters for everyday money.

For families: Driving kids to school, shopping, December holidays to Durban or Cape Town becomes cheaper. A family driving Johannesburg to Durban (600km) uses about 50 litres - save R90. That is grocery money.

For transport: Taxis, e-hailing, delivery bikes all use petrol. If petrol price fell almost R10 per litre this year (per IOL), and diesel up R13 due to Iran war volatility, taxi fares went up. A cut could stop another fare hike before Christmas. Food delivery costs may also stabilize, because petrol is part of last-mile cost.

But if diesel rises while petrol falls, then things carried by trucks - bread, maize, vegetables - may still stay expensive. Diesel is what moves goods from farm to shop.

So for now, early data gives hope for petrol car owners, but diesel drivers, farmers and trucking companies still face pressure. Watch CEF update mid-November - it will tell us if this relief will hold.