Business Costs Still Dey Bite as Activity Rises

Nigerian businesses had one of their strongest months on record in September 2026, but many owners are still struggling with the cost of keeping their doors open. That is the main message from the latest Business Confidence Monitor from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).

The new record

NESG's business activity index reached 117.8 points in September, the highest it has been. The previous high was 117.2 points in February. A year ago, in September 2025, the reading was 107.9, and in August it was 112.7.

In plain words, the index uses 100 as a neutral line. Anything above 100 means businesses are growing, and anything below 100 means they are shrinking. At 117.8, activity is well above that line and still climbing.

Trade led the way. Its score jumped to 128.5 from 112.0 in August. NESG says part of the boost came from back-to-school shopping, which pushed more stock into shops and more customers through the doors. Agriculture also improved, rising to 117.7 points.

Not every sector gained, though. Manufacturing slipped to 108.4 from 120.4, with cement among the areas that shrank. Services also slowed to 107.7, from 112.4 in August.

Why businesses are still under pressure

Even with more customers, firms say it costs a lot to serve them. NESG's cost of doing business index stood at only 39.2 points, and its prices index at 58.0. Both are far below the 100-point neutral line, which NESG says shows that operating costs and producer prices remain high for firms.

The report points to several familiar problems:

Difficulty getting finance
Irregular electricity supply
Insecurity
Poor infrastructure
High rent

Manufacturers also reported trouble getting raw materials. NESG's financial results index fell into contraction in September after several months of expansion. That suggests many businesses are selling more but are not necessarily keeping more of the money.

There was one bright spot. The investment index moved into expansion after several months of decline.

What this may mean for everyday people

A record activity score is good news, because busy businesses usually need more workers and spend more. But the figures also suggest that business owners are paying more to produce and sell their goods. When costs stay high, firms often try to protect their profits by keeping prices up. That means shoppers may not see prices fall quickly, even in a month when business is good.

Small business owners, such as traders, shop owners and people who run generators for power, may feel the squeeze most. Workers could benefit if growth leads to more hiring, but firms that are struggling with costs may be slow to expand.

NESG's outlook index for the next one to three months was 128.9 points in September, slightly down from 129.3 in August. That points to firms staying hopeful but careful. Nairametrics also reported that the World Bank recently raised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.3%.

In short, business is moving, but the cost of power, finance and other basics keeps eating into the gains. Whether people feel the improvement in their daily lives will depend on how quickly those costs come down.